I MAXI ANABEI XANA
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/ ... air14.html
Wednesday, July 14, 2004
Aerospace Notebook: Airbus could steal the show again
By JAMES WALLACE
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER REPORTER
EDITOR'S NOTE: P-I aerospace reporter James Wallace will attend next week's Farnborough Air Show. Look for his reports starting Monday.
With the longtime rivalry between The Boeing Co. and Airbus turning nasty over the issue of subsidies, the two industry titans head into next week's Farnborough Air Show in England with soaring expectations and an industry on the rebound.
Boeing, after a year marked by ethics scandals and a shakeup in the executive suite, is flying high. Its stock is up to levels not seen in two years, and executives are expressing confidence that the planned 7E7 Dreamliner will be a big winner in the market, perhaps seeing 200 sales this year alone.
But Airbus could once again steal the show. Although the situation could change, Boeing is not expected to announce any more 7E7 orders before or during the show, according to industry sources. But Airbus may use Farnborough's world stage to trump Boeing with a big order announcement from Virgin Atlantic.
Boeing, on the other hand, may announce an order for about a half dozen 777s. And that's about it, the industry sources said.
The Farnborough show near London is held every other year, alternating with the Paris Air Show.
Regardless of who orders what, this year's show will play out against a much different backdrop from Paris a year ago.
Boeing's Harry Stonecipher, who replaced Phil Condit as Boeing's leader late last year, won't be there -- but his recent rhetoric about Airbus will certainly be a hot topic of debate at Farnborough.
Stonecipher, known for his straight talk, came out of retirement to take over as Boeing's chief executive when Condit resigned one week after Boeing's chief financial officer, Mike Sears, was fired in an ethics flap.
Earlier this year, Stonecipher promised to "raise the rhetoric" over so-called European government subsidies that Airbus is getting to help fund about 33 percent of the development costs of its $12 billion A380 superjumbo. Airbus rolled out the first flight test A380 last week. The double-decker giant will enter service with Singapore Airlines in 2006. In what is already being billed as the air show of the decade, the A380 will make its debut at the Paris Air Show next year.
But the big plane could also be the center of attention at Farnborough as the war of words between Boeing and Airbus continues.
Boeing calls them subsidies but Airbus calls them market-rate loans that are allowed under a 1992 agreement between the United States and the European Union.
Last year, Airbus delivered more planes than Boeing for the first time, and will do so again this year and possibly in 2005. That only underscores the point that Airbus no longer needs aircraft development subsidies, Stonecipher has said.
Meanwhile, he has kept his promise.
Just before the Farnborough show, he told the industry publication Flight International that Boeing might take unspecified action regarding the subsidies.
Although the air show will miss Stonecipher's color and personality, other top Boeing executives will be there, including defense and space boss Jim Albaugh and Alan Mulally, head of Boeing Commercial Airplanes.
Mulally will make a presentation to the media at Farnborough on Monday, the opening day of the show, and his talk will be followed immediately by a presentation from Airbus executives.
Airbus may use the show later for another big order announcement from Virgin Atlantic.
The U.K.-based airline has been weighing whether to buy additional widebody jets from Boeing or Airbus. Sources say the airline has decided to buy more A340-600s from Airbus rather than Boeing's 777-300ER.
At the Farnborough show in 2002, Sir Richard Branson, Virgin's flamboyant billionaire chairman, took delivery of the first A340-600 delivered by Airbus.
The Airbus plane is the world's longest jetliner, and Branson's plane bore the motif: "Mine's bigger than yours."
With Branson surrounded by the kind of lovely ladies usually found on Page Three of the British tabloids, the Airbus plane was christened at the air show by supermodel Claudia Schiffer.
But at a Farnborough news conference later, Branson raised industry eyebrows, especially those at Boeing and with the engine makers, by saying Virgin's passengers felt safer on the four-engine A340 than on Boeing's two-engine 777. Airbus also got in its licks, too, with an ad campaign at the show that raised questions about the safety of two-engine jets for long-haul flights.
If Virgin Atlantic is ready to announce it will order more A340s, then Farnborough would be the kind of stage that Branson seeks. After all, he's done it before there.
Another possible Airbus order with Boeing implications could come from Cebu Pacific, the Philippine carrier that has been looking to replace its fleet of old DC-9s. In a blow to Boeing's struggling 717, Cebu Pacific has reportedly decided on the Airbus A319. Boeing badly needs new orders to keep the 717 program going.
It is not certain whether the Cebu order announcement will come at Farnborough.
Until a couple of years ago, Boeing and Airbus both saved up orders just to make a big splash at the Farnborough and Paris air shows.
Boeing has stopped that practice.
"I can almost guarantee that you will not see a big pile of orders (from Boeing) at Farnborough," Mike Bair, Boeing's senior vice president of the 7E7 program, said last week.
"A few years ago, we made a conscious decision to stop trying to hold orders for the air show. We will make announcements when our customers are ready to make announcements."
Bair went on to say that he could "easily see" a situation where Boeing might announce additional 7E7 orders the week before the show.
Just a few days ago, according to industry sources, Boeing looked to have at least one more airline ready to step up with an order announcement just before the show.
But that is now much less likely, the sources said.
Boeing has 62 announced orders for its new jet, including 50 from launch customer All Nippon Airways of Japan and two from Air New Zealand.
Last week, Boeing got his first European 7E7 orders, from the U.K.'s First Choice and Italy's Blue Panorama. Both are charter operators.
Industry analysts say aerospace stocks, including Boeing, tend to trade higher ahead of the Paris and Farnborough air shows as investors anticipate new orders. When those orders don't materialize, the stock drops.
That happened to Boeing in 2001, after the Paris show, where Airbus announced 155 orders to three for Boeing. It was the first year of Boeing's new policy not to store orders for the air shows.
In 2002, Boeing's stock dropped after the Farnborough show when the company announced only two firm orders.
And Airbus stole the show last year in Paris when Emirates placed a blockbuster order for 21 more A380s. It did order 777s, but they were leased jets so Boeing's order book did not grow.
It could be more of the same this year at Farnborough, although Boeing still has more than five months left to get enough 7E7 sales to beat Airbus in new orders for the first time since 2000.
Aerospace Notebook is a Wednesday feature by P-I aerospace reporter James Wallace. He can be reached at 206-448-8040 or jameswallace@seattlepi.com
:
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/ ... air14.html
Wednesday, July 14, 2004
Aerospace Notebook: Airbus could steal the show again
By JAMES WALLACE
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER REPORTER
EDITOR'S NOTE: P-I aerospace reporter James Wallace will attend next week's Farnborough Air Show. Look for his reports starting Monday.
With the longtime rivalry between The Boeing Co. and Airbus turning nasty over the issue of subsidies, the two industry titans head into next week's Farnborough Air Show in England with soaring expectations and an industry on the rebound.
Boeing, after a year marked by ethics scandals and a shakeup in the executive suite, is flying high. Its stock is up to levels not seen in two years, and executives are expressing confidence that the planned 7E7 Dreamliner will be a big winner in the market, perhaps seeing 200 sales this year alone.
But Airbus could once again steal the show. Although the situation could change, Boeing is not expected to announce any more 7E7 orders before or during the show, according to industry sources. But Airbus may use Farnborough's world stage to trump Boeing with a big order announcement from Virgin Atlantic.
Boeing, on the other hand, may announce an order for about a half dozen 777s. And that's about it, the industry sources said.
The Farnborough show near London is held every other year, alternating with the Paris Air Show.
Regardless of who orders what, this year's show will play out against a much different backdrop from Paris a year ago.
Boeing's Harry Stonecipher, who replaced Phil Condit as Boeing's leader late last year, won't be there -- but his recent rhetoric about Airbus will certainly be a hot topic of debate at Farnborough.
Stonecipher, known for his straight talk, came out of retirement to take over as Boeing's chief executive when Condit resigned one week after Boeing's chief financial officer, Mike Sears, was fired in an ethics flap.
Earlier this year, Stonecipher promised to "raise the rhetoric" over so-called European government subsidies that Airbus is getting to help fund about 33 percent of the development costs of its $12 billion A380 superjumbo. Airbus rolled out the first flight test A380 last week. The double-decker giant will enter service with Singapore Airlines in 2006. In what is already being billed as the air show of the decade, the A380 will make its debut at the Paris Air Show next year.
But the big plane could also be the center of attention at Farnborough as the war of words between Boeing and Airbus continues.
Boeing calls them subsidies but Airbus calls them market-rate loans that are allowed under a 1992 agreement between the United States and the European Union.
Last year, Airbus delivered more planes than Boeing for the first time, and will do so again this year and possibly in 2005. That only underscores the point that Airbus no longer needs aircraft development subsidies, Stonecipher has said.
Meanwhile, he has kept his promise.
Just before the Farnborough show, he told the industry publication Flight International that Boeing might take unspecified action regarding the subsidies.
Although the air show will miss Stonecipher's color and personality, other top Boeing executives will be there, including defense and space boss Jim Albaugh and Alan Mulally, head of Boeing Commercial Airplanes.
Mulally will make a presentation to the media at Farnborough on Monday, the opening day of the show, and his talk will be followed immediately by a presentation from Airbus executives.
Airbus may use the show later for another big order announcement from Virgin Atlantic.
The U.K.-based airline has been weighing whether to buy additional widebody jets from Boeing or Airbus. Sources say the airline has decided to buy more A340-600s from Airbus rather than Boeing's 777-300ER.
At the Farnborough show in 2002, Sir Richard Branson, Virgin's flamboyant billionaire chairman, took delivery of the first A340-600 delivered by Airbus.
The Airbus plane is the world's longest jetliner, and Branson's plane bore the motif: "Mine's bigger than yours."
With Branson surrounded by the kind of lovely ladies usually found on Page Three of the British tabloids, the Airbus plane was christened at the air show by supermodel Claudia Schiffer.
But at a Farnborough news conference later, Branson raised industry eyebrows, especially those at Boeing and with the engine makers, by saying Virgin's passengers felt safer on the four-engine A340 than on Boeing's two-engine 777. Airbus also got in its licks, too, with an ad campaign at the show that raised questions about the safety of two-engine jets for long-haul flights.
If Virgin Atlantic is ready to announce it will order more A340s, then Farnborough would be the kind of stage that Branson seeks. After all, he's done it before there.
Another possible Airbus order with Boeing implications could come from Cebu Pacific, the Philippine carrier that has been looking to replace its fleet of old DC-9s. In a blow to Boeing's struggling 717, Cebu Pacific has reportedly decided on the Airbus A319. Boeing badly needs new orders to keep the 717 program going.
It is not certain whether the Cebu order announcement will come at Farnborough.
Until a couple of years ago, Boeing and Airbus both saved up orders just to make a big splash at the Farnborough and Paris air shows.
Boeing has stopped that practice.
"I can almost guarantee that you will not see a big pile of orders (from Boeing) at Farnborough," Mike Bair, Boeing's senior vice president of the 7E7 program, said last week.
"A few years ago, we made a conscious decision to stop trying to hold orders for the air show. We will make announcements when our customers are ready to make announcements."
Bair went on to say that he could "easily see" a situation where Boeing might announce additional 7E7 orders the week before the show.
Just a few days ago, according to industry sources, Boeing looked to have at least one more airline ready to step up with an order announcement just before the show.
But that is now much less likely, the sources said.
Boeing has 62 announced orders for its new jet, including 50 from launch customer All Nippon Airways of Japan and two from Air New Zealand.
Last week, Boeing got his first European 7E7 orders, from the U.K.'s First Choice and Italy's Blue Panorama. Both are charter operators.
Industry analysts say aerospace stocks, including Boeing, tend to trade higher ahead of the Paris and Farnborough air shows as investors anticipate new orders. When those orders don't materialize, the stock drops.
That happened to Boeing in 2001, after the Paris show, where Airbus announced 155 orders to three for Boeing. It was the first year of Boeing's new policy not to store orders for the air shows.
In 2002, Boeing's stock dropped after the Farnborough show when the company announced only two firm orders.
And Airbus stole the show last year in Paris when Emirates placed a blockbuster order for 21 more A380s. It did order 777s, but they were leased jets so Boeing's order book did not grow.
It could be more of the same this year at Farnborough, although Boeing still has more than five months left to get enough 7E7 sales to beat Airbus in new orders for the first time since 2000.
Aerospace Notebook is a Wednesday feature by P-I aerospace reporter James Wallace. He can be reached at 206-448-8040 or jameswallace@seattlepi.com
:
Κατά τη γνώμη μου, η Virgin παίζει το χαρτί του "4engines4longhaul" ακριβώς επειδή έχει αντίπαλο την BA, η οποία έχει ένα μεγάλο στόλο δικινητήριων long haul αεροσκαφών. Τα δικινητήρια μπορεί να έχουν αποδείξει την αξιοπιστία τους σε συνθήκες ETOPS, αλλά ο άνθρωπος από τη φύση του θα εξακολουθεί να φοβάται το αεροπλάνο σε ένα βαθμό και θα προτιμάει ένα 4κινητήριο, γιατί τα στατιστικά της αξιοπιστίας των 2κινητήριων σε πολλούς δεν λένε τίποτε (αναφέρομαι πάντα στο μέσο επιβάτη). Όταν κάποιος μάλιστα βομβαρδίζεται συνέχεια από σχετικές δηλώσεις ή διαφημίσεις, δεν είναι και δύσκολο τελικά να επιλέξει την 4κινητήρια εναλλακτική. Πιστεύω, λοιπόν, ότι είναι θέμα διαφοροποίησης από το βασικό ανταγωνιστή τους. Αλλιώς, γιατί να χρησιμοποιούσαν το ευαίσθητο θέμα "ασφάλεια" στις προωθητικές τους ενέργειες; Αν, φυσικά, αποκτήσουν και αυτοί 777 (αν κρίνουν ότι τους συμφέρει περισσότερο), όλη αυτή η ιστορία με τη σιγουριά του 4κινητήριου θα ξεχαστεί με το χρόνο.
